What If… UTSA draws different results in rivalry games

Previously in the What If Series: What If… No UTSA Football | What If… Traylor went to Tech | What If… UTSA became a Basketball School | What If… UTSA didn’t leave Conference USA | What If… Shaq takes up UTSA’s basketball offer | What If… UTSA baseball wins an earlier NCAA tournament game | What If… Some close UTSA wins were close losses | What If… UTSA blows the 2021 C-USA Championship Game | What If… UTSA joins the Mountain West in 2013

Since beginning football in 2011 UTSA has developed rivalries with several schools. The oldest rivalry still going is the series with Rice that began as a non-conference game in 2012 before UTSA joined Conference USA in 2013. UTSA and Rice have continued the rivalry into the American Conference.

UTSA and Texas State have a rivalry of proximity and history as every other sport but football has a long history with the Bobcats. The Roadrunners and Bobcats had one football game as conference rivals in 2012 and then had to wait five years before another football game. The rivalry has intensified in recent years with it becoming annual through the 2020s and Texas State’s hiring of GJ Kinne, Traylor’s QB at Gilmer High School in the mid 2000s.

Another series that began in 2012 that was not as big a rivalry but might have become one was UTSA against Louisiana Tech which ran as a conference series through the one year in the WAC in 2012 and 10 years in Conference USA in 2013-22. It’s possible the rivalry with Louisiana Tech might have gotten bigger with time but that won’t happen now as the two are in separate conferences.

UTSA began two rivalries in 2013 when they played UTEP and North Texas for the first time. UTSA and North Texas quickly developed a rivalry after UTSA went into Denton in 2013 and knocked the Mean Green out of contention for the Conference USA West Division. The Roadrunners won three of the first four games against North Texas between 2013-16 with North Texas avoiding a winless season in 2015 by beating UTSA in Denton. North Texas won three in a row from 2017-19 and spoiled UTSA’s perfect season in 2021 but since Traylor took over in 2020 that loss in 2021 is the only time UTSA has been beaten by North Texas in football.

The series with UTEP was unique in that the road team won every game between 2013-2017 before UTSA won in the Alamodome in 2018. One of those road wins for UTEP was a five overtime game in the Alamodome in 2016. UTSA closed out the series with UTEP winning six in a row between 2017-2022. It’s possible the series might be resurrected someday and the Roadrunners and Miners might reunite on the football field.

In each of the Roadrunners Rivalry series there has been results that swung one way or another. In the original What If Series five years ago I looked at a few games from the 2011-2019 era of UTSA football. Today to close out the second run of UTSA What If lets look at some of the rivalry games in the Jeff Traylor era that might have changed the fortunes of the Roadrunners if they went the other way.

What if UTSA has different results in rivalry games?

For the finale of UTSA What If we will look at one game from each of UTSA’s rivalry series in the Jeff Traylor era. The first game is also the most recent time UTSA has lost to one of its rivals. It came last October at Rice Stadium in Houston when Rice stunned UTSA on a touchdown pass with four seconds left to beat the Roadrunners 29-27. That score came after UTSA had retaken the lead, 27-23 with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. UTSA’s final touchdown, a 38 yard pass from Owen McCown to Houston Thomas had capped off a 14-0 run by the Roadrunners in the final quarter to erase a 23-13 lead for Rice after three quarters.

The last second touchdown for Rice gave the Owls their first win in the series since 2014 when the Owls were 3-0 against the Roadrunners. UTSA won eight in a row between 2014-2023 with the game in 2020 that was scheduled for early November at Rice Stadium cancelled when both teams had issues with positive COVID tests in the days leading up to the game. Had that 2020 game been played its possible Rice might have won that one and then their win in 2024 isn’t snapping such a long winning streak for UTSA.

But what if that last pass from E.J. Warner doesn’t reach the hands of Matt Sykes and instead falls to the Rice Stadium turf or somehow lands in the hand of a Roadrunner defender. If UTSA had been able to beat Rice last season it would have pushed the Roadrunners win streak against the Owls to nine games and allowed UTSA to improve to 1-1 in conference play while keeping Rice winless on the 2024 season. UTSA was able to bounce back a week later with a win against Florida Atlantic in the Alamodome but then closed out October with a second half collapse at Tulsa. Its possible the collapse at Tulsa never happens if UTSA is riding into that game on a two game winning streak after holding on against Rice.

A year earlier, in 2023, UTSA went into Denton to play a North Texas Mean Green team that had won the last four games on their home field since the Roadrunners first win there in 2013. The 2023 Roadrunners came into Denton in a similar spot to their 2021 predecessors, the Roadrunners had an undefeated conference record. North Texas was looking to play spoiler. The Roadrunners got out to a fast start against the Mean Green by scoring the first 10 points in the game to lead 10-0 after one quarter. UTSA added another 17 in the second quarter to take a 27-13 lead into halftime.

In the second half UTSA scored the only points in the third quarter to take a 30-13 lead into the final quarter. North Texas cut the Roadrunners lead to 30-21 just 59 seconds into the fourth quarter. After a UTSA three and out the Mean Green looked to be on their way to cutting the UTSA lead even further but Danyai Taylor intercepted a Chandler Rodgers pass at the UTSA 13 and returned it 78 yards to the UNT nine yard line. Two plays later Kevorian Barnes scored to give UTSA a 37-21 lead with 9:32 left in the fourth quarter. North Texas scored on their next drive and converted their second two point conversion of the day to cut UTSA’s lead to 37-29 with 5:50 left in the final quarter. After choosing to kickoff to UTSA the Mean Green never saw the ball again as UTSA ran out the clock.

But what if North Texas doesn’t throw the interception and instead goes on to score to cut UTSA’s lead to 30-28 or 30-29? Or what if North Texas gets the ball back down 37-29 and then goes down field to tie the game and force overtime?

In terms of the first possibility. Cutting the Roadrunner lead to 30-28 or 30-29 with nine and a half minutes left in the fourth quarter could have led to another wild finish between UTSA and North Texas. A lot could have happened in nine and a half minutes, maybe UTSA goes on a clock killing drive and scores a touchdown to go up eight or nine points. Maybe North Texas gets the ball back and goes on its own clock killing drive before snatching another win away from UTSA.

The second possibility sees a different outcome in the final five minutes of the game. If North Texas had gotten the ball back with around two or three minutes left they would still be faced with an eight point deficit. UTSA had also forced three turnovers on the afternoon so that would be in the back of the mind of everyone at the stadium. If North Texas is able to come back and tie the score at 37 to force overtime they might have been able to keep the momentum going and stun UTSA in overtime. It’s also possible that Frank Harris does what he did numerous times as UTSA quarterback by rallying the troops and lifting UTSA to the overtime victory.

One thing is sure. A loss to North Texas in 2023 would have added to the idea that UTSA couldn’t solve Apogee Stadium. It also might have derailed UTSA’s express train before the season finale at Tulane did. Just as the loss to Rice did in 2024, a loss at North Texas in 2023 might have caused knock-on effects on the Roadrunners down the road, especially as it would have come at the expense of UTSA blowing a double-digit lead.