What If… UTSA baseball wins an earlier NCAA tournament game

Previously in the What If Series: What If… No UTSA Football | What If… Traylor went to Tech | What If… UTSA became a Basketball School | What If… UTSA didn’t leave Conference USA | What If… Shaq takes up UTSA’s basketball offer

UTSA baseball has made four trips to the NCAA tournament since the program debuted in 1992. UTSA went 0-6 in its first three trips to the NCAA tournament before winning three in a row this year, including two in a row over the two seeded Texas Longhorns to win the Austin Regional and come two wins short of the program’s first trip to Omaha, falling in two straight to UCLA at the Los Angeles Super Regional

The Roadrunners’ first trip to the NCAA tournament came in 1994. UTSA came close to its second trip to the NCAA in 1997 as it needed just one win to advance but lost the Southland Tournament final in two games to Texas State. The Roadrunners’ second trip to the NCAA tournament came in 2005 when they won their second Southland tournament championship. UTSA’s next visit to the NCAA tournament came in their one season as members of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in 2013.

UTSA came close to making the NCAA tournament twice in their tenure in Conference USA but they lost in the conference tournament final to Rice in 2014 and Louisiana Tech in 2022. The 2022 Roadrunners were battling for an at-large spot but were not chosen as one of the 64 teams in the tournament that year. Instead the Roadrunners had to wait until 2025 to make its fourth trip to the NCAA tournament. After going 0-for-2 in each of the previous three trips, the Roadrunners finally broke through for an NCAA tournament win this year. UTSA beat Kansas State to open the Austin Regional and then came from behind to beat Texas in the second game before eliminating the Longhorns in the Roadrunners’ third game of the weekend to go 3-0 at the Austin Regional.

In continuing our “What if” series, we ask what if UTSA had won a game in the NCAA tournament before this year? What might have happened in those tournaments if UTSA hadn’t gone 0-2.

What if UTSA gets a win in either of its first three trips to the NCAA tournament

The Roadrunners’ first trip to the NCAA tournament in 1994 was to Austin for the Central Regional. UTSA was one of six teams making the trip to Austin as the five seed. They opened their NCAA tournament experience with an 11-8 loss to the two-seeded Nevada Wolfpack. The Roadrunners finished their first trip to the NCAA tournament a day later with a 10-5 loss to the six-seeded Arkansas State.

If UTSA had been able to beat Nevada to open the regional they would have faced the hosts and three-seeded Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns eventually reached the regional final before losing to the one-seeded Oklahoma Sooners. If UTSA had been able to get past Nevada and the Longhorns they’d have played Oklahoma. Maybe the Roadrunners of 94 catch lightning in a bottle and beat Oklahoma to reach the regional final. It’s possible the Roadrunners run ends with a loss to Oklahoma and then a loss in the semifinal elimination against either Texas or Stanford or Nevada.

If UTSA had fallen to Nevada as they did historically but defeated Arkansas State in the elimination game they would have faced Nevada or Texas in the quarterfinals. Had UTSA won a few games at the 1994 NCAA tournament it would have given the Roadrunners their first 40-plus win season in just their third season of baseball. It’s possible that gets the team more publicity and they eventually get a few more trips to the NCAA tournament that leads to an influx of money for the program. If UTSA had won the central regional in 1994 they would have advanced to Omaha for their first trip to the College World Series as Super Regionals didn’t begin until the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1999. UTSA winning the Central Regional in 1994 also would have resulted in a different national champion that year. In real life Oklahoma won the National Championship in Omaha after winning the Central regional.

In 2005 UTSA was back in the NCAA tournament and this time it was as a four seed a little farther up the road as Baylor hosted a regional as the number four national seed that year. That regional included two seed TCU and three seed Stanford. UTSA opened the weekend with an 8-3 loss to Baylor and the next day bowed out with a 6-2 loss to Stanford.

If UTSA had been able to open the weekend with an upset of Baylor they would have faced TCU in the winners bracket. A win in that game and UTSA could have faced either Baylor or Stanford or TCU in the regional final. UTSA would have become a national cinderella story as they went into the 2005 tournament with a losing record. If UTSA had lost to Baylor but then defeated Stanford they would have faced TCU in another elimination game. A win in that game and UTSA would have had to beat Baylor twice to win the regional. If UTSA had been able to win the Waco regional its first super regional trip would have been in South Carolina against the Clemson Tigers. In 2005 Clemson won the first game against Baylor in the Waco super regional before Baylor won the next two. A world where Clemson is hosting UTSA in the super regional likely results in Clemson heading to Omaha.

Even if UTSA had managed just one win in 2005 it would have been historic as the first win by the Roadrunners in the NCAA tournament. Perhaps it would have propelled the late 2000 Roadrunners to more NCAA appearances before they next played in the tournament in 2013.

In 2013 UTSA made what remains its only trip out of state for a regional tournament. The Roadrunners, kings of the WAC, were placed as the four seed in the Corvallis Regional hosted by one seed Oregon State (the number 3 national seed). Also in that regional were two seed Texas A&M and three seed UC Santa Barbara. The opener against Oregon State was the closest UTSA came to its first NCAA tournament win before this year as the Roadrunners took a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth before Oregon State scored two in the bottom of the ninth to walk-off into the winners bracket. UTSA was unable to recover from that collapse and was eliminated the next day with a 6-1 loss to Texas A&M in an elimination game.

If UTSA had been able to hold on and beat Oregon State that day they would have faced UC Santa Barbara in the winners bracket. A win in that game and UTSA would have made its first regional final (or second or third depending on how those previous what ifs of 1994 and 2005 go). If UTSA had been able to bounce back from losing to Oregon State with a win over Texas A&M in the elimination game they would have faced UC Santa Barbara in another elimination game hoping to get another chance at Oregon State. UTSA would have needed two wins against Oregon State to win the regional and reach a super regional before 2025. If UTSA had gotten past the Corvallis Regional their first (or second if they won Waco regional in 2005) super regional would have been in Manhattan, Kansas against the Kansas State Wildcats. Maybe UTSA is able to knock off Kansas State twice to reach Omaha but its likely that the Roadrunners cinderella run gets dashed by the Wildcats.

It remains to be seen what the future holds for UTSA after this season and the first trip to a Super Regional. If UTSA had gotten some wins in its earlier trips to the NCAA tournament it’s possible the Roadrunners are a more well known baseball program nationally with boosts to recruiting and perhaps more trips to the NCAA tournament. A UTSA that had early success in the NCAA tournament might even have put money into Roadrunner Field and maybe it’s UTSA hosting UCLA in 2025 in the Roadrunners’ second or third trip to a Super Regional. But the ball has rolled the way it has for UTSA and the Roadrunners are proud owners of one trip to the Super Regional and a 3-8 record in the NCAA baseball tournament.

Next Week: What if… Close wins in the Traylor era go the other way