What If… Some UTSA close wins were close losses

Previously in the What If Series: What If… No UTSA Football | What If… Traylor went to Tech | What If… UTSA became a Basketball School | What If… UTSA didn’t leave Conference USA | What If… Shaq takes up UTSA’s basketball offer | What If… UTSA baseball wins an earlier NCAA tournament game

As UTSA football nears its 15th season of football this year it will be going into its sixth season with Jeff Traylor as head coach of the program. When Traylor takes the field week one against Texas A&M he will officially break the tie with Larry Coker as longest tenured head coach in program history.

Already through five seasons Traylor has taken UTSA beyond where it ever got under Coker or second coach Frank Wilson. Nowhere is that more evident than in the sheer number of one-possession games Traylor has been involved with at UTSA compared to his two predecessors. In his five years as head coach of UTSA Larry Coker was part of 23 one-possession games out of his 58 games coached. Coker went 12-11 in his one-score games. Wilson had fewer opportunities in his four years as he only coached in 48 games. Just 14 of the games coached by Wilson were one-possession games and UTSA was 6-8 in those games.

Traylor came to town in 2020 and quickly made one-possession games part of his repertoire. His first game as head coach was a one-possession game, a 51-48 win over Texas State in double overtime. In 2020 Traylor and UTSA took part in seven one score games out of the 12 they played. A year later in 2021 the Roadrunners played a school record 14 games and six of those were decided by one possession. 2022 was another 14-game season with seven of those games being one possession games. Traylor has seen his one-possession game ratios go down recently as UTSA just had four games decided by one possession in both 2023 and 2024.

A one possession game is slightly different from a single-digit margin game. A one possession game is won or lost by a margin of eight points or less. A nine-point win or loss, though a single digit score, would be a two-possession game. In his first five seasons at UTSA Traylor has put up an 18-10 record in one possession games including a 10-2 record in one-score games in the Alamodome.

What if some of those 18 wins for Traylor went the other way? How might UTSA football have turned out losing to Texas State in 2020 or 2023? Memphis in 2021 or 2024? Or what happens if UTSA loses its regular season game to Western Kentucky in 2021 or can’t make the comeback on UAB in 2021? Or loses to North Texas and UTEP in the 2022 regular season? Here is what might have happened in those situations.

Analyzing close wins for UTSA under Jeff Traylor

UTSA came close to losing Jeff Traylor’s debut in September 2020. Texas State’s kicker missed an extra point late in the fourth quarter that would have made the score 42-41 and kept UTSA from sending the game to overtime. Instead UTSA was able to pull the 51-48 win in double overtime after the kicker missed a field goal on the Bobcats possession in the second overtime. But if that Texas State kicker had made the extra point the Bobcats first win in the series might have come in 2020 and not four years later in 2024.

A loss in his debut would have given Traylor the distinction of being the first UTSA head football coach to lose his first game at the school after Coker and Wilson both started 1-0. Instead Traylor joined those two at 1-0 and eventually became the first UTSA football coach to start his career 3-0.

A few years later in 2023 the Roadrunners and Bobcats met again in San Antonio. This was the first meeting between Jeff Traylor and his former Gilmer quarterback GJ Kinne who was taking over the Texas State Bobcats. UTSA won the 2023 game 20-13. UTSA scored the first 10 points before Texas State scored the next 10 to tie the score at 10-10 at halftime. UTSA outscored the Bobcats 10-3 in the second half to win what became their only non-conference win in 2023.

If Texas State had been able to put up a little more offense in the second half they could have gotten their first win in the series against UTSA and also sent UTSA to an 0-2 start. Assuming UTSA loses to Army and Tennessee in the following weeks, the Roadrunners would have been 0-4 for the first time since the 2015 season. It would have been a rough start for the Roadrunners going into their first year in the American Conference. UTSA did start 7-0 in the American that year but its possible they have a different experience going in if they had been 0-4.

Some close wins over Memphis

UTSA has played two close games in its history against Memphis. In 2021 UTSA visited Memphis for a non-conference game between two teams that were 3-0. The Roadrunners fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter before outscoring the Tigers 31-7 in the final three quarters. The Roadrunners’ win over Memphis gave UTSA its first 4-0 start since 2012. UTSA eventually started 11-0 in 2021 and overcame close calls in several other games over that season. A loss to Memphis probably doesn’t derail those later results in Conference USA although it would have slowed the Roadrunners momentum from the strong start to the season.

Three years later in 2024 Memphis made its long awaited visit to the Alamodome, this time with both UTSA and Memphis as members of the American Conference. UTSA entered the game with a 1-3 conference record after losing close games to Rice and Tulsa. Memphis was 3-1 in conference and on a three-game winning streak after losing the conference opener to Navy. Memphis led for much of the first half before UTSA was able to tie the score at 24-24 before halftime.

The Roadrunners built a big lead in the second half before Memphis cut it down to 44-36 with 48 seconds left in the fourth quarter. UTSA was able to recover the onside kick and run out the clock. But if Memphis had been able to recover the onside kick maybe they go down and score and tie the game at 44, forcing overtime. Or perhaps Memphis holds onto its lead longer and UTSA is the one trying to comeback later in the game. If UTSA had lost to Memphis in 2024 it could have snapped the Roadrunners’ streak of bowl appearances and meant the Roadrunners finish no better than 5-7.

A couple of close wins that helped springboard the 2021 run

Two weeks after visiting Memphis in 2021 UTSA was on the road at Western Kentucky and found themselves in a shootout with the Hilltoppers. UTSA eventually took the lead for good in the third quarter and had to hang on in the fourth quarter as the Hilltoppers got within six points of the Roadrunners, 52-46. Western Kentucky had the ball in the final minute and were driving down the field looking like they might score and snap UTSA’s undefeated start at 5-0.

WKU even had first and goal at the UTSA 5 with a few minutes left in the fourth quarter but an illegal blocking penalty backed WKU to the UTSA 20 and on third and goal from the 20 Bailey Zappe threw a pass that was intercepted by Clarence Hicks to send UTSA to 6-0. But if Zappe is able to connect on one of the plays before that interception or Hicks is unable to come down with it on 3rd and goal and WKU scores on 4th down it could have changed the picture of the 2021 season for UTSA. The Roadrunners would have been 5-1 for the second time in program history but also would be 1-1 in conference play and would likely have to win out the rest of the way to earn a spot in the conference championship game in December 2021 which with a WKU win would have meant a return visit to Bowling Green as opposed to the Hilltoppers coming to San Antonio as happened in our timeline.

In UTSA’s second to last game of the season in 2021 and the final home game of the season UTSA hosted defending conference champions UAB in the Alamodome. A win by the Roadrunners would clinch their spot in and ability to host the conference championship game. A UAB win and it would be the Blazers advancing to the conference title game for the fourth straight season.

UAB had a chance to win the game late as they had a 31-27 lead and fourth and less than a yard at their own 42 but the Blazers chose to take a delay of game and punt the ball to UTSA. With a little over a minute left UTSA drove down the field and Frank Harris connected with Oscar Cardenas for the greatest touchdown in program history to give UTSA a 34-31 win and their first berth in the conference championship game.

If UAB had gone for it on 4th and inches and converted they would have handed UTSA its first loss of the 2021 season and probably put the end to any hopes of UTSA being in the conference championship game. It might have springboarded UTSA to closing out the season with a win at North Texas and a bowl win but it would have kept UTSA from the biggest goal of all, a conference championship.

A tough road to repeat in 2022

Fortunately UTSA won the 2021 Conference USA championship and in 2022 were on their way to a second straight title. They had a tough road as four of their conference games in 2022 were one-possession games including come from behind victories in the Alamodome against North Texas and UTEP. UTSA’s win over North Texas in the regular season came on a touchdown in the final 15 seconds of the game that closed out a last minute drive eerily similar to the drive North Texas had gone on in Denton in 2017 to beat UTSA that year. UTSA had its revenge for the Drive in Denton with the Drive in the Dome. As it turned out that win in the Dome had larger implications as it meant UTSA would get to host the conference championship game that December and not North Texas.

In the final week of the regular season and the final meeting between UTSA and UTEP the Roadrunners nearly gave up their hosting duties in the conference championship game. They fell behind to the Miners 24-0 in the first 22 minutes of the game and it looked like it would be a second straight year of a 7-0 start to conference followed by a loss in the regular season finale. The Roadrunners eventually woke up and made the largest comeback in program history and beat UTEP 34-31 to complete the 8-0 conference record and make it six wins in a row against UTEP to close out the series.

Had UTSA not been able to beat UTEP they still would have hosted the conference championship game with a 7-1 record against a 6-2 North Texas. Had UTSA lost to North Texas and UTEP in 2022 there would have been a three-way tie for the top of the conference between UTSA, North Texas and Western Kentucky. UTSA and North Texas both beat WKU so they would have taken the head-to-head over the Hilltoppers and North Texas would have hosted UTSA in the conference championship game in Denton.

Fortunately for the Roadrunners the ball bounced their way in both games at home against North Texas and UTEP and UTSA took down the Mean Green by 21 points in the Alamodome on the first Friday of December to get that second straight conference title.

Next Week: What If… UTSA blows the 2021 Conference USA championship game?